AbstractA Scottish SME has developed a dynamic passenger demand forecasting solution for Airports which is currently used in some of the most complex airports in the world including London Heathrow, Gatwick and Oslo. The solution provides flexible and accurate forecasting for airports across the globe, integrating data from a variety of sources and using advanced forecasting techniques. The company is interested in license and commercial with technical assistance agreements within civil aviation
DetailsAirports are highly dynamic environments, with large variations in the number of passengers arriving and departing throughout the day, and at different times of the year. To manage and process passengers, airports need to deploy large numbers of staff and equipment to the correct locations and tasks throughout the airport.
Developed using over 20 years experience in the aviation industry, this passenger forecasting solution enables airports to make better informed decisions on the resources required across their operation. Data is fed into the solution from multiple sources including the Airport Operational Database, flight schedules, passenger transfer messages, the flight data warehouse and bluetooth-based tracking of passenger movements. This data enables the advanced forecasting techniques of the solution to create a highly accurate picture of passenger and baggage flows within each day throughout the airport, resulting in a robust and reliable vision of your future operational demands.
The software displays forecast demand at 15 minute intervals throughout the operational day, identify peaks and troughs in demand. 95% accurate forecasting allows for effective planning for anomaly days, major events, religious festivals, the impact of new routes and terminal layout amendments.
The software has a large number of reports and graphs allowing forecasts to be compared in many different ways and to be broken down so that the effect of an individual flight can be seen easily. The majority of the forecast reports use display both text and chart based reports displayed within Excel, with automatic formatting of the data based on the reporting criteria selected by the user. New reports (or Excel sheets) can be added to show additional forecast data if required.
Many of the forecast reports show recorded versus forecast data both in text and chart based formats, allowing the user to easily identify inconsistencies. Some reports also display recorded versus forecast figures for the identical date range in previous years allowing a historical comparison to be carried out.
The solution can be deployed as a standalone application or as a hosted service with forecasting provided as an added value managed service.
Key advantages of the solution include:
- Provision of accurate predictions of passenger demand for any demand-driven business process with accuracy in excess of 95%
- Creation of a robust demand forecast model that learns and improves as it's supplied data
- Easy access to hour-by-hour, minute-by-minute demand on the airport's operations that can be shared with all airport stakeholders for advanced planning and decision making
The solution is currently utilised at some of the most complex airports in the world. It is the standard demand forecasting tool across BAA's operations, including London Heathrow - the world's busiest international airport; and London Gatwick - the busiest single runway airport in the world.